India has a unique opportunity to emerge as a global leader in the production and use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), provided Government and industry take concerted steps to achieve the goal of transporting 100 million domestic passengers on at least a 10% SAF blend by 2030.
In a recent study ‘Deploying Sustainable Aviation Fuels at Scale in India’ released under the aegis of the World Economic Forum’s Clean Skies for Tomorrow (CST) initiative and in partnership with McKinsey & Company, a detailed roadmap has been provided to achieve that goal with extensive analysis on SAF feedstock availability and sustainability, production capacity and technological maturity, as well as analysis of resulting social and economic benefits.
“This Clean Skies for Tomorrow special report for India is an important step to help focus attention on the actions required from the aviation industry, governments and energy suppliers, and we would like to see it replicated around the world,” said Michael Gill, Executive Director, International Air Transport Association in the report.
The aviation industry is already seized of its responsibilities towards reducing carbon emissions and had committed in 2009 to a reduction pathway to 50% of 2005 emissions by 2050 through the Air Transport Action Group (ATAG). This commitment was reiterated in 2020.
Emergent need
Though dented by the pandemic, India’s growing economy is expected to regain its growth trajectory soon, driving air travel back to pre-pandemic levels by 2024. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) had originally projected India to emerge as the world’s third-largest aviation market by 2024.
While aviation produces approximately 3% of total CO2 and 12% of transport emissions globally, less than 1% of India’s total emissions are contributed by its aviation industry. However, in India, aviation’s total emissions will increase as sustained growth in air travel takes root this decade. Increased use of SAF to power domestic air travel is imperative if India meets its commitments towards global emissions targets and reduces crude oil imports in the future. The usage of SAF on mid-and long-range flights will also deliver substantial savings in emissions as these flights are shown to contribute to more than 70% of aviation CO2 emissions (in 2018).
According to the CST study, India requires 360,000 metric tonne of SAF to achieve its vision of transporting 100 million domestic passengers on a 10% SAF blend by 2030. Domestic ATF requirements at then would have grown to approximately eight million tonne.
Since 2011 more than 300,000 commercial flights have been flown using various blend levels of SAF, which at present is certified for use at up to 50% blending with conventional jet fuel. All aircraft and airports today can handle the current maximum certified blend of 50% SAF. Reducing the use of ATF and other forms of fossil fuel is vital as air travel is expected to snowball in the decades to come. IATA had forecast that between 2016 and 2035, air passengers could double from 3.8 billion to 7.2 billion.
A chance for leadership
India’s wealth of natural resources and bio-based feedstocks makes it well placed to become a global leader in biofuels and e-fuels. It is also a low-cost producer of solar and wind power on a global scale. However, quick decisions need to be taken along with creating a national policy on SAF, if India is to emerge as a global leader in SAF supply-chain infrastructure and production. Any delay in decision making now could mean that despite its advantages of a significantly sized market, abundant, sustainable feedstocks and its position as one of the world’s lowest-cost producers of renewable energy, India would not make the transition in time to emerge as a SAF leader.
The study cautioned that India’s SAF starting point is different from other biofuels and other countries as it is trailing in supply chain maturity, demand for renewable products, and willingness of customers to pay for reducing their carbon footprints compared to European nations. This will be especially challenging for Indian carriers, which have already been buffeted by the pandemic posting record losses. This could make them less than willing to incur additional financial costs in using expensive SAF compared to abundantly available and inexpensive ATF.
Fossil jet fuel in India is 200–500% cheaper than SAF (depending on the pathway and feedstock). Therefore, there will be a bridging cost gap of more than $ 335 million to produce 360,000 tonne of SAF for a 10% blend by 2030 as per the study. Three alternatives have been presented to close the funding gap; Government funding or Customer funding or jointly. By investing early in SAF and driving national and partnering international solutions, India can stay ahead of the technology curve for emissions reduction and create a thriving economy in sustainable aviation.
Pathway to sustainability
The CST study has identified four SAF feedstocks and production pathways in the short term which are considered as most feasible in India. First, Hydro-processed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA), mostly from used cooking oil, Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) using agricultural residues and surplus sugar streams such as cane molasses and syrup, Gasification/Fischer-Tropsch (GAS-FT), using municipal solid waste and agricultural residues and finally Power-to-Liquid (PtL) in particular could be feasible based on hydrogen technology and access to point sources of carbon in the chemical, steel and cement industries.
Feedstock availability for the pathways identified for SAF feedstock and production is available in abundance in the country. According to the study, this includes used cooking oil, municipal solid waste, sugar streams and agricultural residues, approximately 166 million tonne of which can be made available. These could yield more than 22 million tonne of SAF annually.
While collecting agricultural residues will require farm-level mechanisms, collecting cooking oil and sugar streams could build on existing mechanisms focusing on industrial users. It requires end-to-end segregation infrastructure for harnessing solid waste. Only a concerted national policy can drive efforts to build feedstock collection systems and end-to-end supply chains and infrastructure to eventually meet these needs.
NB: Featured photo courtesy: BP.