Auto retail sales in June demonstrated a 10% YoY growth on account of positive performances across all vehicle categories, such as 2W, 3W, PV, Tractor and CV, growing by 7%, 75%, 5%, 41%, and 0.5%, respectively.
Manish Raj Singhania, President, FADA, said, “Despite a 10% YoY growth, the auto retail sector has seen an 8% MoM dip, indicating a short-term deceleration in sales.'
Retail sales in June 2023 were 18,63,868 against 17,01,105 vehicles registered in June 2022.
Also Read: Next Three Fiscals A Litmus Test For Royal Enfield
3W Is The Highest Growing Segment
The three-wheelers (3W) have continued their golden run, as 86,511 units were registered in June 2023, enabling a 75.48% YoY growth over 49,299 units registered in June 2022.
According to Singhania, June 2023 witnessed the 3W market's robust growth due to the previous year's low base effect and positive market sentiment.
He said, “The shift towards alternative fuels, predominantly EVs, continues to play a significant role in driving this growth, despite potential supply concerns due to non-availability of OBD2 vehicles.”
Tractors Back On The Field
In June 2023, 98,660 tractors were sold, translating into 41.04% growth, compared to 69,952 units sold in June 2022.
Singhania said, “Despite some short-term contraction, India's growth narrative remains resilient. The month of June’23 registered all-time highs for 3W, PV and Tractor segments when compared to all the previous June’s.”
PVs Grew 4%
A total of 2,95,299 PVs got registered in June 2023, against 2,81,811 in June 2022, resulting in 4.79% YoY growth.
Singhanis highlighted that the PV segment navigated through a mixed landscape characterised by variable demand, dynamic product portfolios and oscillating market sentiments.
He said, “With dealers noting sporadic supplies of popular models and aging product concerns of slow moving variants, the segment still experienced an uptick in demand for new models and anticipates rural sales to pick up further pace.”
CV Inch Ahead Marginally
With a YoY growth of 0.44%, the commercial vehicle (CV) segment saw registrations of 73,212 in June 2023, against 72,894 units in June 2022.
Singhania said, “The CV segment confronted mixed dynamics influenced by inconsistent demand, supply issues, Government policies and external market factors. Despite fluctuating demand and vehicle availability issues, the Government's infrastructural push and coal mining growth spurred demand for heavy commercial vehicles, counteracted by high-interest rates and rising prices.”
Near-term Outlook
July'23's auto retail outlook signals mixed trends. The two-wheeler market anticipates continued supply challenges and economic pressures, despite new schemes and expectations of monsoon-boosted sentiment. Meanwhile, the cutback in FAME subsidies casts a shadow over EV sales. Conversely, the three-wheeler market predicts growth, underpinned by favourable market responses and rising demand.
The passenger vehicle segment faces a dichotomy of factors. While the launch of new models and a potential rise in rural sales lend optimism, dealers navigate inventory pressures from OEMs and demand-supply mismatches, impacting profitability. However, the anticipation of a boost from the upcoming festive season in end-August offers a hopeful outlook. The commercial vehicle sector contends with a balance of positive market sentiment and potential monsoon impacts, with demand spurred by infrastructural projects and improved financing options.
On the agricultural front, erratic monsoon rainfall in India hinders crop sowing. The delayed and uneven rains may reduce crop yields, shorten crop cycles and cause a delay in future crop arrivals. Such developments may affect the sales of automobiles, particularly in rural areas where a weak agricultural season could reduce disposable income, thus affecting demand for two-wheelers and entry-level cars. Yet, upcoming rains may potentially boost agricultural prospects, revive rural demand, and positively influence automotive sales. FADA hence remains cautiously optimistic for the near-term outlook.